In a surprising turn of events, Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee for the 2024 presidential election, experienced a notable decline in support from Black and Latino voters compared to Joe Biden’s performance in 2020. This shift played a crucial role in Donald Trump’s successful bid to reclaim the presidency.
Black Voter Support
Historically, Black voters have been a cornerstone of the Democratic Party’s base. In 2020, Joe Biden secured an overwhelming 92% of Black votes, with Trump receiving only 8%. However, Harris failed to maintain this level of support in 2024. According to exit polls, she garnered 86% of Black votes, while Trump’s share increased to 12%.
The decline in Black voter support was particularly pronounced among Black men. While Black women remained strongly supportive of Harris at 92%, Black men’s support dropped significantly. Harris received 78% of Black male votes, compared to Biden’s 87% in 2020. Trump, on the other hand, saw his support among Black men rise to 20%.
Latino Voter Trends
Latino voters, another crucial demographic for Democrats, also showed a shift towards Trump in 2024. Harris managed to win a majority of Hispanic/Latino voters nationwide, but her margin was significantly smaller than Biden’s in 2020.
According to NBC News exit polls, Harris secured 53% of the Latino vote, while Trump captured approximately 45%. This marked a substantial change from 2020, where Biden had led with 59% to Trump’s 38%. Trump’s 13-point surge set a new record for Republican candidates, surpassing even George W. Bush’s 2004 performance.
The shift was particularly noticeable among Latino men, with 54% supporting Trump compared to Harris’ 44%. This was a reversal from 2020, where Biden had secured 57% of Latino male votes.
Factors Influencing the Shift
Several factors contributed to Harris’s underperformance among these key demographics:
- Economic concerns: Many Black and Latino voters prioritized economic issues, with Trump’s message resonating more strongly on topics like inflation and rising costs.
- Immigration stance: A rightward shift on immigration among Latino voters benefited Trump, who promised stricter border enforcement.
- Gender gap: While Harris maintained strong support among Black and Latino women, she struggled to match Biden’s performance with men in these communities.
- Trump’s targeted outreach: The Trump campaign made concerted efforts to appeal to Black and Latino voters, particularly focusing on economic messaging.
Implications and Analysis
The decline in Black and Latino support for Harris compared to Biden’s 2020 performance had significant implications for the election outcome. These demographic groups have been crucial to Democratic victories in recent elections, and the erosion of support contributed to Trump’s successful return to the White House.
Political analysts note that while Harris still won majorities among these groups, the margins were not sufficient to overcome Trump’s gains in other areas. The shift also highlights the need for Democrats to reassess their outreach and messaging strategies to these communities.
As the dust settles on the 2024 election, it’s clear that the changing dynamics of Black and Latino voter support played a pivotal role in shaping the outcome. The Democratic Party will likely need to conduct a thorough analysis of these trends to develop strategies for future elections and to address the concerns that led to this shift in voter allegiance.
https://apnews.com/article/election-harris-trump-women-latinos-black-voters-0f3fbda3362f3dcfe41aa6b858f22d12
https://www.newsweek.com/kamala-harris-underperformed-three-demographics-1981222
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/latino/trump-economy-latino-vote-2024-election-rcna178951
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/interactive-how-key-groups-of-americans-voted-in-2024-according-to-ap-votecast